In fairness, the title of the much-circulated The Economist article did use a question-mark, thus raising the possibility rather than making a declaration. But article aside, what is clear is that if Jamaica is going to fix its problems, it will have to do so largely on its own.

That is because the option of riding a foreign wave back to growth is not likely available. Recent reports out of our major trading partners - the US, Canada, Britain - suggest that any economic recoveries which emerge there will be tepid at best. Europe will do scarcely better. Asia will grow; but since we sell so little there at the moment, we will not benefit very much in the short term.

So that means demand for our exports will not rebound strongly, and remittances are likely to decline. We cannot export our way out of this crisis. We can seek new markets and capture share by making ourselves more competitive. But that will take painful adjustment, and time.

Curiously, our best friend at the moment may be the International Monetary Fund (IMF), if only because it is willing to talk to us. That is saying something. When you're left befriending the world's lender of last resort, you're rather reduced to the state of the sick drunkard hugging the toilet bowl. But there you have it.

Glimmer of hope

There remains, perhaps, one glimmer of hope. The American and British strategies of reflating their economies with cheap credit is not, so far, producing credit-fuelled consumption binges. After years of high spending, Americans especially are tightening their belts. Hence, the US saving rate has risen, and Americans have ploughed money back into their investments.

That has caused house prices to level off their decline - at least for now - and the stock market to resume rising. Wall Streeters are cheering the return of happy days. But an unpleasant secret hides behind the headlines: US asset markets have risen more slowly than overseas ones.

That is because American investors understand that a sluggish economy cannot support a booming stock market indefinitely. Sooner or later, the two will converge. The safe bet is that when they do, it will be stock markets which converge downwards rather than the economy catching up to the stock market.

So instead, Americans anxious to rebuild their nest eggs have been quietly moving money into emerging markets. In the circumstances, that is to be expected, as I wrote earlier this year. And there are reasons to believe this trend will continue for years. The effect is that American private capital is eagerly seeking out investment opportunities in developing countries.

Make that transition

So while we will not be able to export our way out of our woes, capital may be available to help us make the transition to a more competitive economy. Should we make that transition when strong growth resumes in our major partners, we will be able to ride the wave with a big board.

That's the good news. The bad news is that capital will go where potential returns are highest. At the moment, given Jamaica's current state - our high crime, our high interest rates, our low productivity - there is little chance capital will come. Addressing all these issues, which will involve sacrifices on the part of all, will have to precede any investment boom.

In short, it's in our hands. We can cross our fingers and hope for the best, while knowing deep down that worse is likely to come. Or we can seize the initiative and make the transformation that will turn crisis into opportunity.

We didn't create this global crisis. Curiously, though, the power to overcome it is all in our hands.

John Rapley is president of the Caribbean Policy Research Institute (CaPRI), an independent research think tank affiliated with the University of the West Indies, Mona. Feedback may be sent to columns@gleanerjm.com.